They did say "around" $30k when it was announced, so I think they have a little bit of leeway. But it would look pretty disingenuous if all of a sudden it was starting at $37500 😆
I mean they were planning to sell these without the tax credit in place and even with the restored tax credit it's not like that comes out of their profit. So if they are able to sell a competent SUV at an effective starting price of $22,500 they'll be flying off the shelves, so to speak.
That said, I wouldn't be shocked if the starting price at reveal time is $32k or so.
The $7500 doesn't come out of their pocket, but it gives them 'room' to increase their price by about the same amount, as they can do that and still hit their initial targeted selling price (before dealer markups, of course).
Ford raised the price of the F150 Lightning by up to $8,500 a couple weeks ago. They claimed it was due to higher costs , because they're not going to say it's 'Because you get a $7,500 discount anyway'. That said, I do believe that their costs have definitely gone up since they initially priced the vehicle.
They will have a huge waiting list well beyond their build capacity for years, whether they price is at $30k or $37.
I suspect it will be closer to $37k.